New Jersey Polling Results

Why I Picked New Jersey

I chose to study the polls from New Jersey because that is where my parents are from and New Jersey is a diverse, highly populated state. My parents were both born in New Jersey and I wanted to see if their choice is a result of their geographic background. Either way the polls turn out will support and disprove the NJ influence because they are both voting for different candidates. I asked Mr. Ritter about New Jersey and he said it isn’t a swing state, but it still an important state because of its diversity. A diverse population makes New Jersey a difficult state to call in this election, despite their consistent Democratic presidential candidate vote. My reasons for picking the state were to try to get some insight into my parent’s political leanings and the insightful information Mr. Ritter has provided.

My Findings

Using a line of linear regression I can predict that Obama will win New Jersey with 53.0784 or 53% of the vote and McCain will have 43.8388 or 44% of the vote. My “r” is 0.8281 and my “r2” is 0.6857 for Obama, for McCain my “r” is 0.4384 and my “r2” is 0.6857. My data will probably hold true due to New Jersey hasn’t voted for a Republican president in twenty years. New Jersey itself doesn’t hold much importance to the election, but it could be an indicator of how the rest of the northeast area will vote, which is very important to the election. The line of linear regression is a good tool especially when you can measure its percent error in “r” and “r2”. The percent of my line of best fit is very low so from that I know I have a prediction very close to what will actually happen. The line of best fit is a good predictor but things can change in election so I’ll just have to wait until November fourth to see if my data is correct.